摘要
由于水文现象的复杂性及其资料的有限性，至今尚无法在理论上确定洪水峪量究竟属何种频率分布。目前选择线型均是依据实测资料，以曲线与经验分布的拟合优劣作标准来确定线型。通过用四种频率线型，对新疆天山北坡中小河流洪水进行拟合分析，从１１个站的拟合情况来看，有９个站用Ｐ－Ⅲ型拟合结果最好，占整个参加分析站点的 ８２％，因此，可以认为 Ｐ－Ⅲ型曲线较适应于新疆天山北坡河流洪水分析。
Over a long period of time, both domestic and foreign hydrologists have studied the curve types of flood frequency. However, it can not be theoretically determined that what kind of frequency distribution the peak discharge belongs to. In flood frequency analysis, all the estimated results, including the various statistical parameters, designed peak discharge of the various flood frequency and the selected curve types of frequency, are obtained based on the flood data collected during a short period. Thus, the considerable errors (including the stochatstic, calculated, and systematic errors exist in the estimated results. In this paper, 4 curve types of flood frequency are selected for fitting analysis of floods occurring in the mid-small streams on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains. The fitted results are ideal at 9 hydrometric stations among 11 in total.
出处
《干旱区地理》
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第4期353-357,共5页
Arid Land Geography
关键词
洪水
频率分布线型
新疆
水文频率
数理统计
flood
curve type of frequency distribution
Xinjiang
North slope of Tianshan
