摘要
利用1971-2010年近40 a的气象资料,首先分析了影响夏玉米倒伏的两个主导因子——大风日数和大雨日数的变化特征。然后分析了不同生育阶段不同程度倒伏的发生概率及其空间分布,最后进行了夏玉米大风倒伏的综合气候风险区划。结果表明:(1)近40 a夏玉米生长季大风日数显著下降,西北部渑池、孟津地区和南部的信阳一带大风日数较多;大雨日数变化趋势不显著,空间分布呈西北向东南方向显著递增的趋势。(2)不同倒伏等级中,轻度倒伏发生的概率最大,全生育期平均达44.2%;乳熟-成熟期倒伏发生概率明显高于其他生育阶段,达到28.7%。(3)综合气候风险高风险区主要分布在豫南最南部,低风险区主要分布在豫西的卢氏、伊川等地以及豫北的沁阳、林州、濮阳一带和豫东的商丘、太康等地。
Abstract：First, the variation characteristics of strong wind days and heavy rain days were analyzed based on the meteorological data in recent 40 years from 1971 to 2010. They are the two dominant factors that influence maize lodging. Then, the probabilities of the lodgings with different degrees in different growth stages and their spatial distribution were analyzed. Last, the comprehensive climate risk zoning of strong wind lodging of summer maize was carried out. The results show that, （1） Strong wind days decrease obviously in summer maize growing season during recent 40 years. Relatively more strong wind days are observed in Mianchi, Mengjin and Nanyang area in the NW and S of Henan. The temporal variation trend of heavy rain days is not obvious, but obviously it increases from northwest to southeast in spatial distribution. （2） The probability of mild lodging is the largest in the different lodging grades, while the average is about 44.2% in whole growth period. The probability of the lodging in the growth stage from milking maturity to full maturity is larger than that in the other growth stages, which reaches28.7%. Province, Province, （3） and High value areas of comprehensive climate low value areas of comprehensive climate risk risk distribute in the southern part of south Henan distribute in regions of Lushi, Yichuan of west Henan Qinyang, Linzhou, Puyang of north Henan Province and Shangqiu, Taikang of east Henan Province
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第1期174-182,共9页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006041)
河南省基础与前沿技术研究计划项目(122300413219)
河南省气象科学技术研究项目(Z201005)
关键词
大风倒伏
气候风险
夏玉米
strong wind lodging
climate risk
summer maize
