摘要
霜冻是宁夏一种主要农业气象灾害,对其风险评估及区划,可为区域防灾减灾提供有效依据。以宁夏23个气象站1981-2010年日气象观测数据、社会经济数据及地理信息数据作为基础资料,采用风险指数法、层次分析法、加权综合评分法等方法,利用ARCGIS绘图软件对宁夏晚霜冻灾害风险进行分析和评价,完成霜冻灾害风险区划图。结果表明,宁夏晚霜冻的孕灾环境敏感性复杂,北部灌区敏感性低于山区;致灾因子危险性普遍偏高;承灾体脆弱性北部灌区大部偏高,南部次之,中部最低;防灾减灾能力北部灌区最高,中南部山区偏低;晚霜冻灾害风险大的区域集中在北部灌区的永宁、吴忠及南部的彭阳等地,风险小的区域集中在灌区北部和中部大部。
Frost is a major agricultural meteorological disaster in Ningxia. Frost risk assessment and zoning can provide a valid basis for the regional disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the information of meteorological observation data from 1981 to 2010 in Ningxia 23 weather stations, socioeconomic and geographic information data, and by the methods of risk index, analytic hierarchy process, weighted composite score, late frost disaster risk was evaluated, and the frost disaster risk zoning maps were completed with GIS. The results show that, the environmental sensitivity of the late frost is complex. The sensitivity in the northern irrigation areas is lower than in the mountain areas; hazard risk is generally on the high side; vulnerability of the hazard-affected body is the highest in the most of northern irrigated areas, next to the highest is in the south areas, and the central part is the lowest; the capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation is the highest in the irrigation areas, and lower in central and southern mountain areas ; the highest risk areas of late frost disaster are concentrated in Yongning, Wuzhong of the northern irrigated area and Pengyang in the south, the small risk areas were concentrated in the north of the irrigated area and most of the central area.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第1期167-173,共7页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201230)
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206023)
宁夏科研院所专项(2011)
