摘要
为了解决造价昂贵以及高可靠性产品的可靠性评估问题,基于船舶无失效数据情形,提出了船舶寿命的可靠性评估方法。根据E-Bayes(Expected-Bayesian)理论,设船舶寿命服从指数分布,在失效率的先验分布为Gamma分布,且两个超参数选择三种不同的先验分布情况下,给出船舶失效率和可靠度的三种E-Bayes估计模型;对比分析三种模型,给出EBayes估计的渐进性质。结合集装箱5 600船舶(标箱)寿命无失效数据进行计算,结果表明本文提出的船舶可靠性的E-Bayes估计模型可行、便于工程应用,其中第二种模型当两个超参数同时选取均匀分布时,估计结果更稳健更保守。
In order to solve the problem reliability estimation of high reliability and high cost products, a method of reliability estimation of ship life is presented with Zero-failure Data. Based on the Expected-Bayesian theory, three Expected-Bayesian models of ship relia- bility are put forward under the conditions of exponential distribution and the prior distribution being Gamma distribution, which in- cludes two hyper parameters satisfying three different prior distributions. Compared with those models, progressive nature of Expected- Bayesian models is given. Finally, based on the calculation and analysis on the Zero-failure Data of container type 5600 ship, the re- sults show that the method above is feasible and can be applied to the engineering domain. At last, the second model which two hyper parameters being uniform distribution at the same time is more robust and more conservative.
出处
《控制工程》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第2期189-192,共4页
Control Engineering of China
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(HEUCFL20131103)
