摘要
目前流行的网络计划技术是根据活动的完成时间期望值来确定关健路线,并以关键路线上各活动的完成时间方差来修正工程的完工时间,完全不考虑非关键路线上各活动的完成吁间方差对工程进度的影响。本文通过概率分析指出这种方法在某些情况下有严重误差,并给出了定量的修正方法与公式。
In the present PERT the critical path is calculated from the expected value of te operation time of the acts, and the expected value and the varience of the finished time of the planned project are only related with the expected value and varience of the operation time of the Critical acts. The influence of the uncritical acts is omitted In this paper it is proved that this omission will bring a remarkable error in some case. A modified method and a group of formulae are derived.
出处
《管理工程学报》
CSSCI
1991年第1期49-58,共10页
Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
