摘要
运用回归预测法与灰色系统预测法分别对中国农业总产值进行预测,再根据两种方法的误差确定优化组合预测模型的权重,通过优化组合方法对两种预测方法结果进行信息综合。结果表明,优化组合模型综合预测方法具有相对合理性、可行性和实用性,可为中国农业经济发展规划及管理决策提供科学依据。
Regression forcasting method and grey system forcasting method were used respectively to forecast China＇s agricultural gross domestic product.The weights of optimization combination forecasting model were determined based on the errors of the two methods and the information integration of results of two forecasting methods by optimizing the combination method was performed.The result showed that the combination optimization model＇s forcasting method had relative rationality,feasibility and usability,which can provide scientific base for planning China＇s agricultural economic development and making decision for management.
出处
《湖北农业科学》
北大核心
2013年第23期5930-5933,共4页
Hubei Agricultural Sciences
基金
江苏省高校优秀中青年教师和校长境外研修计划项目(2011)
江苏省第四期"333高层次人才培养工程"项目(2011)
江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金项目资助(2010SJD630050)
关键词
农业总产值
灰色系统预测法
回归预测
组合预测法
agricultural gross domestic product
grey system forecasting
regression forecasting
combination forecasting
