摘要
为了分析危险化学品泄漏事故演化机理,简化其定量风险分析过程,先假设容器失效导致的初始事件为危险化学品泄漏事件,再根据危险化学品物质特性分类和中间演化事件场景,构建了常见的各类危险化学品发生泄漏初始事件后的通用事件树,并根据已有的研究成果,对事件树中各种中间演化事件概率进行取值研究。研究结果表明,通用事件树能很好地揭示基于物质特性和中间事件场景的泄漏事故演化规律,应用含中间演化事件概率的通用事件树能计算出各种事故后果发生的频率,对危险化学品事故的快速定量风险分析有十分重要的参考意义。
In order to analyze evolution mechanism for hazardous chemical leakage accident and simplify quantitative risk analysis, the initiating events resulted from loss of containment is firstly assumed as hazardous chemicals leakage incident, then generic event trees for common hazardous chemical leakage accidents are constructed according to the properties of the released hazardous materials and the corresponding intermediate events and also the intermediate probabilities （immediate ignition, delayed ignition, flame front acceleration, etc. ）are added to the corresponding generic event trees on the basis of the existing research results. The results show that generic event trees can reveal the evolution laws of hazardous chemical leakage accidents well and the final accident frequencies can be estimated by the generic event trees with intermediate probabilities and so it is very useful for rapid quantitative risk analysis of hazardous chemical accident.
出处
《工业安全与环保》
北大核心
2014年第2期21-24,共4页
Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection
基金
国家科技支撑计划子专题项目(2011BAK03B08-01)
国家安全生产监督管理总局2013年安全生产重大事故防治关键技术项目(安监总厅科技(2013)140号)
常州大学校基金项目(ZMF1202055)
关键词
通用事件树
危险化学品
事故演化机理
初始事件
中间事件
定量风险分析
generic event tree hazardous chemicals evolution mechanism of accident initiating event intermediate event quantitative risk analysis（QRA）
