摘要
本文首先对产业成长过程作了一些基本描述 ,指出一个产业的产出序列不一定服从逻辑函数 ,如果产出序列服从逻辑函数 ,其也有可能包含有若干个子逻辑序列。其次 ,定义了辨识序列与波动序列 ,进而建立了 F(K ,b)与 W(K ,b)两个辨识一个产业的产出序列是否服从逻辑函数以及对其构成阶段加以区分并确定相应的逻辑参数的理论模型。最后 。
First the paper analyzes the growth process of an industry based on logistic function, puts the statement that output series of an industry may or may not belong to logistic function,and it may composed of several sub- logistic- periods even it belongs to a logistic function.Secondly the identifying series and the waving series are introduced,F(K,b) model and W(K,b) model are es- tablished,by which the waving properties and the param eters can be determined directly.At last, the working procedure and standards in applying the models practically are proposed.
出处
《预测》
CSSCI
2001年第1期20-23,共4页
Forecasting
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目 !(792 0 0 0 18)
关键词
逻辑函数
产业成长
分析模型
产出序列
logistic function
growth process of industry
analyses model
output series
prediction
