摘要
从工程项目风险管理的角度出发,阐述了大型工程项目的风险特征。基于Monte carlo仿真方法,建立了大型工程项目进度-费用联合风险估计仿真模型,并对仿真结果进行统计分析,获得了进度-费用联合风险曲面。由此得到各种进度费用组合下的风险概率分布。最后结合算例说明了进度-费用联合风险的定量估计方法。
From the viewpoint of risk management for engineering project, the characteristics of the risk of huge engineering projects are mentioned. Based on the simulation method of Monte carlo, a simulation model of combined schedule-cost risk is set up. By analyze the results of the simulation model, a graph of combined schedule-cost risk is achieved by which the distribution of risk under variable combinations of cost and schedule could be gotten. At last a case study is presented in detail to illustrate the process of risk estimation of the combined schedule-cost risk.
出处
《北京航空航天大学学报（社会科学版）》
2000年第4期43-46,共4页
Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics：Social Sciences edition Edition
