摘要
运用最大似然法和经验 Bayes方法 ,研究冷贮备串联系统可靠性指标的估计问题 ,分别给出了该系统失效率、可靠度函数与平均寿命的点估计。最后利用随机模拟方法 ,对两种估计结果进行了比较 ,结果表明 ,经验 Bayes估计优于最大似然估计。
When applying FPA (failure probability analysis) to estimating the reliability performances in cold standby series system, it suffers from two shortcomings: (1) the parameters of life distribution for all elements must be known as constants; (2) FPA is not quite satisfactory for small sample case. We overcome these two shortcomings by experimenting with EBE (empirical Bayes estimation) and MLE (maximum likelihood estimation). Before EBE can be used, we have to obtain first the Bayes estimation of the reliability performances for cold standby series system. Then we obtain the estimated reliablity performences by EBE and MLE. At last, we compare the MLE results with the EBE results by means of Monte-Carlo simulation. The results show that the accuracy of the EBE is better than that of the MLE. The method proposed in this paper can be used to analyze the reliabilities of cold standby series systems in mechanical and electrical appliances. This work remains to be done.
出处
《西北工业大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第1期76-79,共4页
Journal of Northwestern Polytechnical University
关键词
冷贮备串联系统
可靠性指标
估计方法
最大似然法
经验BAYes方法
cold standby series system, reliability performance, EBE(empirical Bayes estimation), MLE(maximum likelihood estimation)
