摘要
通过研究杭州市1990-2010年间耕地、粮食的动态变化,分析了在生存型粮食需求、营养型粮食需求、享受型粮食需求下的最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数的变化特点,并运用最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型、三点滑动平均法对杭州市2011-2030年的粮食安全状况进行了预测。研究结果显示:在三种粮食需求下,营养型需求最符合杭州市的粮食安全现状,在营养型粮食需求中,1990年杭州市的最小人均耕地面积为0.041hm2,到2010年最小人均耕地面积增长至0.069 hm2,而1990-2001年,耕地压力指数K>1;2002-2022年,K>2;2023-2030年,K>3。由此可见,杭州市的粮食安全处于极不安全状态,且未来粮食安全的状况将日趋恶化,针对这种状况,提出增加农业投入、减少耕地占用、积极发展外拓农业等对策来保障粮食安全。
By analyzing the dynamic change of cultivated land and food production during 1990-2010, this paper researched the change characteristic of the minimum area of cultivated land per capita and cultivated land pressure index based on the food demand for subsistence, nutrition and enjoyment, and forecasted food security situation during 2011-2030 by using the minimum area of cultivated land per capita, cultivated land pressure index model and three-point moving average method. The results showed the nutrition one of the three kinds of food demand was most accorded with the current food safety situation in Hangzhou. According to the standard of nutrition, the minimum area of cultivated land per capita was 0.041 hm^2 in 1990, which quickly increased to 0.069 hm^2 in 2010. During 1990-2001, the cultivated land pressure index k 〉 l, and 2002-2022, k 〉 2, 2023-2030, k 〉 3. The food security in Hangzhou is extremely unsafe, and in the future, the food security situation will become worse. In this case, the measures of increase agricultural investment, farmland transition reduction, the development of external agriculture and other measures should be induced to ensure the food safety.
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第1期93-96,共4页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"农地转用过程中土地增值收益分配机制研究"(编号:411711151)
"农户行为响应的农村面源污染治理研究"(编号:41371188)
教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目"基于BEHMs的农户生产行为水环境效应研究"(编号:11YJC630254)
"土地收益分配机制研究"(编号:10YJA630197)
浙江省哲学社会科学规划基金项目"农户生产行为的政策仿真"(编号:12JCGL19YB)
"农地流转潜力研究"(编号:11JCGL12YB)
关键词
耕地数量
粮食安全
最小人均耕地面积
耕地压力指数
杭州市
cultivated land quantity
food safety
minimum cultivated land per capita
cultivated land pressure index
Hangzhou City
