摘要
文章建立了一个测算外汇官方储备的混合面板模型，运用1980～2011年数据估算了特别提款权新标准实施后人民币的国际化程度。并采用近10年的出口和资本流动金额预测了未来人民币在特别提款权货币篮子中的份额。结果表明：特别提款权定值货币的新标准有利于人民币国际化，人民币有望在2030年成为特别提款权货币篮子中的重要组成部分，占到26．81％，与美元和欧元不相上下。最后文章从特别提款权发行和我国扩大开放等角度提出了政策建议。
This paper develops a pooled panel model to qualify the official foreign exchange reserve. In this model, the level of RMB internationalization is respectively estimated under the new criteria by using the data from 1980 to 2011. Then together with the data of exports and financial inflows in recent ten years, the share of RMB in the basket of the Special Drawing Rights is calculated. It finds that the criterion for broadening the SDR currency basket contributes to RMB internationalization. The share of RMB in the basket of the Special Drawing Rights will be up to 26.81% with the new standards and assumptions concerned, which will almost equal to US dollar and Euro. Finally, this paper proposes some suggestions for policy-makers in the aspects of issuing Special Drawing Rights and increasing the market openness of China.
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第2期64-73,共10页
International Economics and Trade Research
基金
国家社科基金项目(10BGJ019)
