摘要
以安徽省为例,采用主成分分析综合评价方法,对1996-2011年城镇化与土地集约利用水平进行了综合评价,借鉴耦合协调度模型,对城镇化演进与土地利用耦合协调度进行了测度,并运用灰色GM(1,1)模型,对2015、2020年城镇化演进与土地利用耦合协调度进行了预测。结果表明,1996-2011年,安徽省土地利用与城镇化水平综合评价得分均呈上升态势;城镇化演进与土地利用耦合协调度由1996年的0.4958提升至2011年的0.6682,年均值为0.5442,处中度耦合协调状态;2015、2020年耦合协调度预测值分别达到0.6985、0.7821。
Since 1996, China has entered a rapid de- velopment period of urbanization. In the context of rapid urbani-zation evolution, the intensive land use state is significant to the achievement of cropland protection goals and the sustainable eeo -social development. Taking Anhui Province as an example, the comprehensive evaluation method with principal component analysis is adopted for comprehensive evaluation on urbanization and intensive land use levels from 1996 to 2011. Referring to a coupling coordination degree model, the coupling coordination degree between urbanization evolution and land use is measured. The gray GM （ 1 , 1 ） model is used to predict the coupling coor- dination degree between urbanization evolution and land use in 2015 and 2020. The results show that the comprehensive evalua- tion seores of land use and urbanization levels have showed an upward trend in Anhui Province from 1996 to 2011. The cou- pling coordination degree between urbanization evolution and land use is increased to 0. 6682 in 2011 from 0. 4958 in 1996 with annual average of 0. 5442, shown as a moderate coupling coordination state. The coupling eoordination degree is predicted to reach O. 6985 and O. 7821 in 2015 and 2020 respectively.
出处
《城市问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第2期75-82,共8页
Urban Problems
基金
安徽省科技厅软科学基金项目(12020503010)--皖江城市带土地优化配置与集约利用模式
关键词
城镇化演进
土地集约利用
耦合协调度
评价与分析
urbanization evolution
intensive land use
coupling coordination degree
evaluation and analysis
