摘要
选取1961～2010年鲁西南9个县区气象观测站降水资料,计算了各站逐年、四季Z指数及区域旱涝指数I,在此基础上分析了单站旱涝频率、I指数的年代际变化趋势,并对区域典型旱涝年的确定及旱涝特点、季节旱涝和年旱涝的关系进行了探讨.结果表明,近50年来鲁西南典型雨涝年出现11次,典型干旱年出现13次,雨涝年以21世纪以来最多,干旱年以20世纪80年代最多;鲁西南年及四季旱涝有明显的年代际变化特征,旱涝指数拟合曲线夏季与年度变化较为一致;鲁西南降水波动较大,旱涝转换频繁,季节性旱涝发生频繁,常连续出现和相伴出现,冬旱和春旱有减缓趋势,秋旱和夏涝有增加趋势;年雨涝和干旱指数均与夏季相关性最好,其次是秋季,即夏季和秋季雨涝（干旱）对年度雨涝（干旱）有重要贡献.
Selecting precipitation data from 9 meteorological stations in the southwest of Shandong Province during 1961-2010,the annual and seasonal Z index of each station and drought and flood index I were calculated.On the basis of this,the frequency of drought and flood,the annual variation trend of I index were analyzed.The determination typical drought year and characteristics,relationship between seasonal drought and annual drought were discussed.The results showed that in recent 50 years in southwest Shandong typical flood years appeared 11 times,13 times typical drought,waterlogging years in the 2000＇ s to 1980＇ s most arid years,most.Southwest Shandong annual and seasonal drought interdecadal variations of drought and flood in summer,the exponential curve fitting and annual change is consistent.Shandong southwest precipitation fluctuations,droughts and frequent change,seasonal drought occurs frequently,often appear continuously and the accompanying,dry winter and spring drought has slowed down,increasing the autumn drought and waterlogging in summer.Years of waterlogging and drought index and summer followed by autumn the best correlation,namely,summer and autumn flood （drought） on the annual flood （drought） have an important contribution.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
2013年第30期12089-12092,共4页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
关键词
鲁西南
旱涝
指标
变化特征
Southwest of Shandong Province
Drought and flood
Index
Variation characteristics
