摘要
为河北省谷子种植面积、产量等相关指标的中长期预测提供参考,运用HP滤波方法将1980-2010年的谷子种植面积分离为时间趋势序列和周期波动序列,对趋势序列建立了时间t的趋势模型,拟合估计了河北省30年的谷子面积趋势。结果表明:2011-2015年河北省谷子潜在种植面积呈较快下降趋势,由13.889 5万hm2下降到11.655 7万hm2,降幅16.08%;2016-2020年谷子潜在种植面积下降速度有所缓和,由11.287 7万hm2下降为10.803 1万hm2,降幅为4.29%,其中2020年预测种植面积数据比2019年有所增加。依据预测结果提出了发展河北省谷子生产的建议。
The millet planting area from 1980 to 2010 was isolated into the temporal trend sequence and periodic fluctuation sequence by using HP filtering method and then the temporal trend model established by the trend sequence was used to estimate the millet area trend during 1980-2010 for medium and long term prediction of millet planting area and yield in Hebei. The results show that the millet potential planting area will decrease from 13. 889 5 ten thousand hm2 to 11. 6557 ten thousand h㎡ during 2011- 2015 and from 11. 287 7 ten thousand hmz to 10. 803 1 ten thousand hm2 during 2016-2020, and the predicted millet planting area in 2020 will increase compared with the predicted millet planting area in 2019. The countermeasures to develop millet production are proposed based on the prediction results in Hebei.
出处
《贵州农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2013年第12期60-63,共4页
Guizhou Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家谷子糜子产业技术体系阶段性研究成果
农业部/财政部"现代农业产业技术体系专项资金"(CARS-07-12.5-A18)
河北省农林科学院课题"山区谷子产业发展模式研究"(A2012030106)
关键词
HP滤波
谷子
面积预测
序列模型
河北
HP filtering
millet
area prediction
countermeasure
Hebei
