摘要
本文首先分析了历史上工业革命发生的条件及其判断标准,认为生产技术重大变革且成熟、可靠、普适,并应用于实体产业是引发工业革命的基本条件,生产成本大幅下降、产业结构重大调整以及生产组织方式重大变革是判断工业革命的重要标准。在此基础上,对当前热议的里夫金和麦基里两位学者关于第三次工业革命的构想进行了剖析和讨论,发现在技术可靠性、引发生产方式重大转变以及对实体工业产生的影响等方面,在一个相当长的时期内这些构想还很难看到其可行性。
This article analyzes the occurrence conditions and criteria of the industrial revolution in history.The maturity,reliability and universality of major technology breakthrough that applied to the real industry is the fundamental condition leading to the industrial revolution.Meanwhile,the decline of cost of production,and also the great changes of industrial structure and ways of production organization are the occurrence criteria of industrial revolution.Based on this,we discuss the latest conceptions of the third industrial revolution raised by Jeremy Rifkin and Paul Markillie and then we find out that they are both impracticable in terms of technical reliability,converting the ways of production and applying on the real industry in quite a long time.
出处
《中国科技论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第2期98-103,共6页
Forum on Science and Technology in China
基金
北京市科技计划Z121100005812005
关键词
第三次工业革命
经济周期
判断标准
Third industrial revolution
Economic cycle
Occurrence criteria
