摘要
LEAP平台是分析经济与能源环境复杂系统的理想工具。构建LEAP-Shanghai模型,在此基础上设计基准情景、减排情景、强化减排情景三个综合情景及产业结构优化、终端能效提高等八个子情景,模拟上海能源消费和碳排放趋势,并分析各自的情景贡献率。结果显示,基于经济的长期稳定增长,中短期内上海能源消费与碳排放的增长态势难以逆转,但2040年前后可能出现峰值,早于全国。长期节能碳减排的关键在于合理控制经济发展增速,并依靠其他多种手段共同实现。
LEAP platform is an ideal tool to analyze the complex system oI economy anu energy environment. By constructing a LEAP-Shanghai model, this study designs three comprehensive scenar-ios, i.e. the baseline scenario, the emission reduction scenario, and the enhanced emission reduction scenario, as well as other eight sub-scenarios, including industrial structure optimization, terminal ener- gy efficiency improvement, and so on. Then it simulates the energy consumption and carbon emis- sions trends in Shanghai and conducts an analysis of the contribution of each scenario. The results show that, according to the long-term stable economic growth, the growth trend of energy consump-tion and carbon emission in Shanghai can hardly be reversed in a middle or short term, but there may be a peak around 2040, earlier in the whole country. The key of long-term energy-saving and carbon emission reduction is to exercise a reasonable control over the growth rate of economic devel-opment. To achieve this target, various other means should also be relied on.
出处
《当代财经》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第1期98-106,共9页
Contemporary Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(10BGL064)
上海市科技发展基金博士学位论文资助项目(11692190600)
复旦大学研究生创新基金项目(EYH3548043)
关键词
LEAP
上海
能源消耗
碳排放
LEAP
Shanghai
energy consumption
carbon emissions
