摘要
为实现对船舶交通系统中客观存在的船舶碰撞、搁浅、走锚和漂航等主要事故风险的宏观认知和全局掌握,利用自动识别系统(AIS)数据对这些事故风险在系统层面进行定量识别与评估显得异常重要。由于船舶航行事故风险产生原因和性质不同,提出了先分类研究后融合处理分析的思路。针对船舶碰撞风险问题,基于传统单船碰撞危险度计算提出船舶系统碰撞危险度概念,并给出相应的定义与计算模型,进而利用系统简化思想和信息融合技术提出一种海上船舶交通网络整体系统碰撞风险的定量计算方案。在船舶搁浅、走锚和漂航风险方面,基于高斯混合模型提出一种统一的异常测度的定量计算方案以及三种风险的识别原理。船舶航行风险识别方案可为海上智能交通系统的研究提供参考。
In order to recognize risks of accident in modern marine traffic systems,such as collision,stranding,dragging anchor and drifting,from a macroscopic viewpoint and to have an overall control of them, AIS data should be used to identify and evaluate quantitatively these risks at the system level.In view of the variousness of the causes and characteristics of ship navigation accident risks,they are investigated separately first and in integrated manner afterwards.For collision risk problem,the concept and the computing model of systemic collision risk degree is introduced based on traditional one to one collision risk index.A scheme for quantitatively evaluating global collision risk degree of a traffic system is developed through system simplification and by using information fusion technology.For risks of ship stranding,dragging anchor and drifting,the principles of identifying three risks,and a scheme for quantitatively computing the degrees of the risks are given based on Gaussian mixture model.The proposed scheme can be used for developing marine intelligent traffic systems.
出处
《中国航海》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第4期114-118,124,共6页
Navigation of China
关键词
水路运输
海上智能交通
船舶航行风险
风险识别
信息融合
自动识别系统
waterway transportation
maritime intelligent traffic system
ship navigation risk
risk identification
information fusion
AIS
