摘要
目的探讨北京市冬季能见度的变化特征及影响因素。方法对2008--2013年北京市冬季能见度的年、月、日以及小时变化特征进行分析。利用SPSS20．2进行Spearman相关、偏相关分析，探讨能见度与温度、相对湿度、气压、风速之间的关系。最后用R语言构建能见度与其相关性较高的气象因素间的多元线性回归方程。结果2008-2013年，北京市冬季平均能见度在16～21km之间，能见度最高的为2010—2011年，最低的为2012—2013年。然而并未发现12—2月能见度月均值发生有规律的变化。能见度小时观测值由高到低为：6：00、12：00、0：00、18：00。能见度与风速、温度、大气压力呈正相关，偏相关系数分别为0．429、0．085、0．320；与PM2.5、相对湿度呈负相关，偏相关系数分别为：-0．379、-0．532。多元线性回归方程为：（Y：能见度；X1：风速；X2：相对湿度；X3：气压）。结论本研究获得了2008-2013年冬季北京能见度变化特征并确定其3个重要影响因素，为能见度的预报乃至空气污染的健康预警提供必要的理论依据。
Objectives To explore the trend of visibility in the winter in Beijing and its influencing factors. Methods The annual, monthly, daily and hourly variation of visibility was analyzed by performing Spearman ＇s correlation analysis and partial correlation was analyzed with SPSS to investigate the relationship between the visibility with temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and wind speed. Finally, a multiple linear regression equation for visibility was constructed by using R language. Results The average visibility in the winter of 2008- 2013 in Beijing was 16 -21 kin. The highest visibility was in 2010-2011 and the lowest was in 2012-2013. However, there was no obvious regular change of monthly average visibility. The visibility observed hourly in a descending order was at ： 6：00, 12：00, 0：00 and 18：00. The visibility was positively correlated with wind speed, temperature and atmospheric pressure with a partial correlation coefficient of 0. 429, 0. 085 and 0. 320 respectively. The visibility was negatively correlated with PMz.5 and relative humidity with a partial correlation coefficient of - 0. 379 and - 0. 532 respectively. The multiple linear regression equation was Y = - 255.0 ＋ 19. 35X1 - 0. 26X2 ＋ 2.73X3 （Y ： visibility; Xi ： wind speed ; X2 ： relative humidity ; X3 ： barometric pressure）. Conclusions The trend of variation and key influencing factors for visibility in winter in Beijing were obtained in this study. The results provided theoretical basis for the forecast of visibility and the early warning of health-related risks.
出处
《环境卫生学杂志》
北大核心
2013年第6期502-506,共5页
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE
基金
国家自然科学基金(21277135
40905069)
北京市自然科学基金(8132048)
关键词
能见度
变化特征
影响因素
visibility, variation, influencing factor
