摘要
分析了水利科技进步促进水利经济效益增长的作用机理,并应用C-D生产函数法计算了近10年来江苏省水利系统各投入要素对水利经济效益增长的贡献份额。研究结论显示,资金投入的贡献份额呈现一定程度的下降趋势,劳动力投入的贡献份额表现出先递增后趋于平稳的特征,技术进步的贡献份额呈现稳步增长的趋势,且对水利经济效益增长的贡献份额明显高于资本或劳动力的贡献份额。在此基础上应用二次移动平均法对江苏省未来10年的水利科技进步贡献率进行了预测。结果显示,在国民经济增长率和物质资本投资率都保持持续稳定的前提下,江苏省水利科技进步贡献率有望在2015年达到60%。
The function mechanism of science and technology progress in boosting economic efficiency growth in water conservancy was analyzed. The CobbDouglas production function was adopted to measure the contribution portion of input elements of Jiangsu Province in economic efficiency growth in water conservancy for the latest decade. The results showed that the contribution rate of labor force increased gradually followed by maintaining relatively stable,the contribution rate of capital decreased year by year and that of science and technology increased steadily, higher obviously than that of the former two elements. Then,Double Moving Average method was adopted to predict the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress in economic efficiency growth in water conservancy for the next decade. The results showed that the rate will be likely to reach 60% in 2015 under the premise of steady national economic growth rate and material capital investment rate.
出处
《河海大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2013年第4期50-53,68,共5页
Journal of Hohai University：Philosophy and Social Sciences
基金
江苏省水利厅科技项目(2012021)
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301055)
国家自然科学基金项目(41271537)
关键词
水利
科技进步
作用机理
贡献份额
water conservancy
science and technology progress
function mechanism
contribution portion
