摘要
运用灰色预测模型预测了若尔盖县阿西乡草地纯收益,并以该预测纯收益与草地改良过程中实际收益差值反映实施草地生态建设过程中牧民的经济损失。依据福利经济学帕累托最优配置,在不降低牧民收入水平的前提下,确定对牧民的生态补偿标准。结果表明,所建用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,精度为1级,短期预测可信度高;预测2012年阿西乡草地纯收益值为362.89元·hm-2,实际纯收益为-23.50元·hm-2,草地生态建设过程中对牧民的补偿标准为386.39元·hm-2。
In this paper, gray forecast model （GM） was used to predict net income of grassland in Axi Township, Ruoergai County. The actual economic loss of herdsman were estimated based on the difference between pure profit prediction and actual net income. According to welfare economics Pareto optimal, the ecological compensation standard of herdsmen was determined without reduction of herdsman income level. The results showed that the level of grey prediction model （GM） is first which is very precise in short period. The prediction of 2012 Axi Township grassland net income was 362.89 CNY ~ ha-＇ and the actual net income is -23. 5 CNY · ha-1. During grassland ecological construction process, the compensation standard was estimated at 386.39 CNY · ha-1.
出处
《草业科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第12期2097-2100,共4页
Pratacultural Science
基金
国家牧草产业技术体系(CARS-35)
