摘要
根据灰色理论及其相关理论,通过对GM(1,1)模型中微分方程使用最小二乘法多项式拟合来求解,提出一种改进GM(1,1)模型。将改进模型的预测精度与原始模型进行了比较得出采用二次多项式拟合的改进模型预测精度高于原始模型,因此采用二次多项式拟合GM(1,1)改进模型。并将该改进模型用于我国非煤矿山事故预测中,对2008-2010年我国非煤矿山伤亡事故死亡率进行预测性计算并且与真实数据进行了比对,进一步验证了模型的可行性。
Based on the Grey theory and Related theory , An improved GM（1,1） model is constructed to solve Dif-ferential eqationals by the methed of Least square Polynomial fitting .Will improve the precision of the model were compared with the original model obtained using quadratic polynomial fitting improved model prediction precision higher than the original model , so quadratic polynomial fitting GM （1,1） improved model is adopted .And use this improved model into the prediction of non-coal mines’ accidents.Make the predictive calculation of the 08-10 cas-ualty accidents ’ mortality rate of China ’ s non-coal mines and compared with the real data further validates the fea-sibility of the model .
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
CAS
CSCD
2013年第11期83-90,共8页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
