摘要
基于2006～2011年中国铜消费数据及相关统计资料，采用定性和定量相结合的方法对中国铜消费市场近5年的变化驱动力进行分析并建立模型。由此得出：①5年中中国铜消费量增加了363万t，铜消费行业主要主要集中在电力等工业领域，但大众消费领域的铜消费速度增长较快；②选择lO项指标建立了中国铜市场变化驱动力模型，利用“主成分分析法”和“SPSS20．0”统计软件，分析表明影响中国铜消费变化的驱动力因子主要是人口增加和经济增长；③对铜消费变化中经济增长的驱动力做回归分析得出：中国GDP每增长1亿元，需要消费铜20t；城镇化水平每提高一个百分点，需要增加铜消费量52．8万t；④中国经济增长将进入大众消费阶段，未来铜消费结构会发生变化，利用货币政策对行业进行长远规划，大力提升行业科技含量和产品附加值，提高铜行业经济效益。
Based on China copper consumption data and relevant statistical data from 2006- 2011, this paper analysises and establishes the mode by combining qualitative and quantitative changes in China＇s copper market nearly five years of driving force. Conclusions are drawn as follows：①copper consumption in China increased hy 3. 63 million tons in five years, copper consumption industry mainly concentrated in industrial sectors such as electricity, but copper consumption in the field of mass consumption growing rapidly;② Building the driving force model with 10 indicators, this paper, adopting ＂principal component analysis（pca）＂and ＂SPSS20.0＂, shows it is the increase of population and economy that influences the whole copper consumption in China;③ Having regression analyzed the impact of economic copper consumption, results are deduced that it need about the new construction 20 tons of the copper while the GDP rises 100 million, meanwhile, about the new construction 528000 tons of the copper while the increase of 1MYMurbanization;④China＇s economic growth will be entered into the phase of mass consumption, the future copper consumption structure change, use monetary policy to long term planning industry, vigorously promote industry science and technology content and added value products, improve the economic effectiveness in the copper industry.
出处
《中国矿业》
北大核心
2013年第12期6-10,32,共6页
China Mining Magazine
关键词
铜消费变化
驱动力
主成分分析
回归分析
中国
copper consumption change
driving force
principle component analysis
regressionanalysis
China
