摘要
余粮率和粮食贸易与发展中国家的城市化进程紧密相关。理论模型论证了封闭经济条件和开放经济条件下,余粮率变化对城市化水平的约束机制。基于亚洲发展中国家1993—2010年的面板数据,对理论模型推论进行的检验发现,国际贸易总体上与城市化水平负相关;但其中谷物贸易和非谷物贸易与城市化水平的关系不同,前者与城市化水平正相关,后者与城市化水平负相关,谷物净进口因放松了国内余粮率对于城市化水平的约束,能够显著促进城市化。发展中国家在支持粮食生产或保证粮食安全的前提下,可采取适当进口粮食的政策,促进城市化水平的提高。
Surplus grain and grain trade are closely related to the urbanization of developing countries.Our theoretical model explains the mechanism whereby changes in surplus grain constrain the level of urbanization in both closed-and open-economy contexts.A test of the theoretical model based on some developing countries in Asia during the period 1993-2010shows that international trade is generally negatively correlated with the level of urbanization.Nevertheless,there exist variations between cereal trade and non-cereal trade in relation to urbanization:whereas the former is positively correlated with the level of urbanization,the latter is negatively correlated with it.Since the net im port of cereals relaxes the constraints of domestic surplus grain on the level of urbanization,it can remarkably promote the course of urbanization.Therefore,when grain production or safety is guaranteed,developing countries may adopt the policy ofimporting an appropriate amount of grain to enhance their level of urbanization.
出处
《中国社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第11期65-84,203-204,共20页
Social Sciences in China
基金
复旦大学"985工程"第三期整体推进社会科学研究项目(第二期)青年项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目"兼顾效率与公平的中国城镇化:动力机制
发展路径与政策调整"(71133004)
国家社会科学基金重大项目"城乡统筹发展背景下户籍制度改革与城镇化问题研究"(11&ZD037)
"新型城市化视角下的经济发展的转变研究"(11&ZD003)
云南省"百人计划"
