摘要
大城市网络购物市场的趋于饱和使得对中小城镇网络购物市场的进一步开拓成为拓展中国网络购物市场的主要方向。通过构建中小城镇网络购物市场影响因素指标体系,引入交叉影响分析法(Cross-Impact Analysis,简称CIA)对此进行分析,并借助马尔柯夫链的预测概念修正了各影响因素在交叉影响之后的概率,从而得出结论:消费者因素和物流因素是影响中小城镇网络购物市场发展的主要因素。
Online shopping market tends to saturation in big cities, making further development of online shopping market for small and medium - sized towns become the main direction of developing Chinese online shopping market. Based on the construction of index system for the influencing factors, introducing the Cross - Impact Analysis method, and using the con- cept of Markov chain prediction to correct the probability of the influencing factors＇ after cross influence, we draw the con- dusion that the consumer and logistics factors are the main factors that affect the development of small and medium - sized towns＇ online shopping market.
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第22期242-246,共5页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
江苏省高等学校大学生实践创新训练计划项目"中小城镇网购现状及前景分析"(2012JSSPITP1254)
江苏大学高级专业人才科研启动基金项目"基于数据质量观的网络调查误差控制研究"(12JDG008)
关键词
中小城镇
网络购物市场
影响因素
交叉影响分析法
small and medium - sized towns
online shopping market
influencing factors
cross - impact analysis
