摘要
针对非常规突发事件本身的特性,传统的"预测-应对"的应急决策范式需要向"情景-应对"的应急决策范式转化。在界定非常规突发事件应急决策中的"情景"概念后,提出非常规突发事件情景分析包括事前情景分析和事后情景分析,并给出非常规突发事件应急管理的情景分析框架;最后,对在情景应急管理中可能用到的一些方法进行探讨。
The characteristic of unconventional emergency is analyzed in the paper. For unconventional emergency, tradi- tional decision -making paradigm of ＂forecasting- coping with＂ should be transformed to new decision -making paradigm of ＂scenario - coping with＂. On definition of scenario in unconventional emergency decision - making, the paper considers that ex ante scenario analysis and ex post scenario analysis represents the whole analysis of conventional emergency. At last, the paper proposes a scenario analysis framework and relevant several methods for unconventional emergency manage- ment.
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第22期225-227,232,共4页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
国家社科基金青年项目"面向非常规突发事件的供应链情景-应对预案基本问题研究"(10CGL026)
浙江省自然科学基金项目"突发事件下供应中断风险规避策略优化模型研究"(Y12G020074)
浙江省哲学社科规划项目"基于供应商可靠性改善与能力备份策略的供应应急运作管理研究"(11JCGL09YB)
