摘要
在RS和GIS技术的支持下,应用1995和2000年二期TM影像以及2006年CBERS-01影像,得到贵阳市三期土地利用/覆盖数据.在此基础上,利用Markov模型对贵阳市土地利用/覆盖变化进行模拟和预测.结果表明：未来15年建设用地面积将—直增加,由2005年的18 458.536 6 hm2增加至2020年的26 467.820 8 hm2,增加了43.39％;林地和水域面积将一直减少,分别由2005年的72 084.1022、1 991.010 9 hm2减少至65 241.6227、1 722.477 6 hm2,减少9.49％、13.49％;耕地和草地均为先增后减,耕地由2005年的131644.716 1 hm2增加至2010年的132 094.802 3 hm2,再逐渐减少到2020年的131 442 264 3 hm2.耕地与袜地间相互转移较为频繁,1995～2000年间,有14.44％的耕地流向了林地,35.17％的林地流向了耕地;新增建设用地主要来源为耕地,其转入率为85.49％.
Based on RS ＆ GIS,the urban land use data of Guiyang were obtained from TM image （1995 and 2000） and CBERS-01 （2006）.The land use and cover change of Guiyang was simulated and predicted by means of Markov model.The results showed that：In future 15 years,construction land would increase continually from 18 458.536 6 hm2 in 2005 to 26 467.820 8 hm2 in 2020,whose increasing rate was 43.39％.Forest land and water area would decreased continually,from 72 084.102 2 hm2 and 1 991.010 9 hm2,respectively in 2005,and decreased to 65 241.622 7 hrn2 and 1 722.477 6 hm2,respectively in 2020,whose reduction rate were 9.49％ and 13.49％,respectively.Cultivated land and grass land firstly increase to 132 094.802 3 hm2 in 2010 from 131 644.716 1 hm2 in 2005,followed by a decrease to 131 442.264 3 hm2 in 2020.The cultivated land and forest land transfered frequently,and there was 14.44％ of cultivated land area was changed into forest land,35.17％ of forest land area was transferred to cultivated land from 1995 to 2000.The new increment of construction land with transfer rate 85.49％.
出处
《山地农业生物学报》
2013年第5期448-453,共6页
Journal of Mountain Agriculture and Biology
基金
贵州省科学技术基金项目"喀斯特地区城市化进程中土地利用与覆盖变化驱动力研究"[黔科合J字(2007)2154号]
贵州大学引进人才项目"基于地质条件的喀斯特土地生态分区研究"(2065041)
