摘要
素来被认为是航运市场“晴雨表”的干散货指数高涨，给市场资金提供了信心支撑，航运股出现久违的攀升。然而，“无风不起浪”，如此急促的涨势仅仅靠季节性惯性增长是不足以完成的，那么还有什么隐形的推手从中发力呢？波罗的海指数还会持续飙升吗？
The BDI index rose sharply to return to the 2000 above, the industry is at the early stage of recovery. As of Sept. 25, BDI index closed at 2127 points, compared with the low points 699 at the beginning of the year, closing to 200%, which reaches new height of nearly 33 months since October 2010. Although BDI index rose continuously in the first half of this year, the performance of the listed company did not improve and shipping stocks remain low. Recent positive factors including the free trade zone, positive peripheral economic indicators and the 20 shipping opinions issued by the Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China have improved the shipping attention. The sudden pulling up of BDI index also provides confidence support to the market funds. The above factors have triggered shipping stocks to rise continuously.BDI index rebound indicates the improvement of commodity demand as well. The commodity prices of raw materials have generally risen continuously since July. Looking from the track of the commodity price of the CRB index, we find the points daily closed at 306.50 Sept. 27, which has gained 10% compared with the relatively low points in June. The upward trend in July and August is the most obvious. According to the insiders, the current market expectations of China is good in the fourth quarter and infrastructure requirements could release atanymoment, thereby increasing the demand for iron ore and other raw materials. However, looking around the current economic environment, we could find that the serious problem of excess capacity exists in the shipping market. Ships' orders rise slightly, but the ship price is still low. There is no better trend of the market. So this round of BDI growth is not relying on the world economic recovery, there exiting other reasons.
出处
《中国远洋航务》
2013年第11期32-34,10,共3页
China Ocean Shipping Monthly
