摘要
目前房地产及股票财富效应在学术界仍存在争议。本研究旨在发现房价与股价波动对消费的影响程度与影响方向。为了考察经济发展水平差异以及金融危机对财富效应的影响,本文把全国分为5个经济区和两个时段,即1999-2007年以及2008-2011年,分别进行回归并对比分析。利用1999-2011年30个省市面板数据,得到以下结论:房地产边际消费倾向为0.025948,但是股票财富效应呈现微弱的负效应,为-0.005854。经济发展差异对房价与消费的长期均衡关系产生了影响,基本趋势是随着经济发展水平提高,房价波动对消费的影响在降低。在金融危机发生前后,房地产以及股票对消费的影响发生了相反的变化,即危机发生后房价波动对消费的影响减弱了,而股票市场的影响则增强了。
Real estate and stock wealth effect is still controversial. The purpose of this paper is to find the impact of housing prices and stock prices volatility on the consumption. In order to investigate the impact of the economic development differenc- es and the financial crisis on asset wealth effect, the country is divided into five economic zones and two periods of 1999-2007 and 2008-2011, respectively, to make regression and comparative analysis. Using panel data of 30 provinces during 1999-2011, we get the following conclusions： real estate marginal propensity to consume is 0.025948, but stock wealth effect shows weak negative effect, that is-0.005854. Differences in economic development have an impact on the long-run equilibrium relation- ship of housing prices and consumption. The basic trend is as the level of economic development improves, the impact of hous- ing prices on consumption is reduced. Before and after the financial crisis, the real estate and stock consumption effect oc- curred opposite to that crisis, the impact of housing prices on consumotion weakened the ~tc, rlr m,rl~,~t ;o ~, A
出处
《投资研究》
北大核心
2013年第9期112-125,共14页
Review of Investment Studies
关键词
房价
股价
财富效应
面板数据
Housing price, Stock price, Wealth effect, Panel data
