摘要
针对正态分布与拉普拉斯分布用于拟合风功率预测误差较大的不足,采用分区拟合的思想对误差进行分区,并在每个区间中应用β分布拟合后,加权求得全区域的误差分布函数。基于此,建立考虑预测误差分布的风电场储能容量数学模型,其中储能容量表示为缺失容量的函数,并介绍储能容量、误差累计分布函数与荷电状态的关系。提出一种新的系统容量缺额评价指标,用于比较储能容量优化效果。算例分析结果表明,该方法可以在一定概率水平下平抑风功率预测误差带来的功率波动,同时降低对储能系统的要求。
Since the normal distribution or Laplace distribution could not fit the forecasting error of wind power properly,the partitioned fitting method is applied,which partitions the error,adopts the β distribution to fit it for each section and calculates the distribution function of forecasting error covering the whole region by weighted summation.With the consideration of forecasting error distribution,a mathematic model of wind farm energy storage capacity is built,in which,the energy storage capacity is represented by the function of capacity deficiency.The relationship among energy storage capacity,error cumulative distribution function and charging state are introduced.An index is proposed for evaluating the system capacity shortage,with which the effect of energy storage capacity optimization is compared.Results of case analysis show that,the power fluctuation caused by the wind power forecasting error is restrained in a certain probability level and the requirement for energy storage system is mitigated.
出处
《电力自动化设备》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第11期117-122,共6页
Electric Power Automation Equipment
关键词
风电场
分区拟合
β分布
预测
误差
评估指标
储能
wind farms
partitioned fitting
β distribution
forecasting
errors
evaluation index
energy storage
