摘要
应用概率论中的原理对两种类型天气情况的预测是一种很有效的方式。文中针对霜降具体日期进行预报的要求提出了采用最大转移概率的方法,对有较大波动性和随机性的时间序列的预报效果较好;对于量化型降水概率预报的要求则采用了区间概率函数方式,转换后的非线性相关因子预报性能大大优于相关因子,且效果较为明显。采用的两种方法具有使用价值,可作为中长期预报的重要工具。
The application of probability theory in the prediction of two types of weather conditions was an effective way. The paper proposed maximum transition probability method in the requirements of predicting date of frost, the predicting effect to time series that had bigger wave motion and stochastic was better. Using the interval probability function for the requirements of quantification of precipitation probability prediction, the prediction performance of nonlinear correlation factor was much better than the correlation factor after converted, and the effect was more obvious. Two kinds of methods that were used had pragmatic value could be used as the important tool for long term prediction.
出处
《科技通报》
北大核心
2013年第10期153-155,共3页
Bulletin of Science and Technology
基金
武汉市教科"十二五"规划课题资助(2012C172)
关键词
概率论
转移概率
区间概率函数
相关因子
probability theory
transition probability
interval probability function
related factor
