摘要
针对研制阶段装备使用可用度难以评价的问题,提出了一种将试验设计、仿真建模、回归树分析相结合的综合评价方法。首先,基于离散事件仿真软件Arena建立两级维修保障模式下单部装备使用可用度仿真模型;然后,采用拉丁超立方抽样完成仿真输入想定的设计;最后,在运行仿真模型获得使用可用度输出数据的基础上,应用回归树模型确定了影响使用可用度的关键因素,并进行了实例分析。结果表明:该综合方法在保证仿真精度的同时减少了抽样次数,能对装备使用可用度进行仿真预计和敏感性分析,可用于研制阶段装备保障性试验与评价。
In order to solve the problem that it is difficult to evaluate the equipment operational availability in development phase,an integrative evaluating method that combines experiment design,simulation modeling and regression tree is proposed.The simulation model of single equipment operational availability under two-echelon maintenance support structure is developed by using arena software,the design of input scenario is accomplished by adopting latin hypercube sampling(LHS),the output data of operational availability is obtained through running the established simulation model,and factors that have obvious influence on operational availability are determined by the regression tree.Finally the feasibility of the proposed method is shown by numerical examples.
出处
《空军工程大学学报（自然科学版）》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第5期13-16,共4页
Journal of Air Force Engineering University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家部委基金资助项目
关键词
使用可用度评价
Arena仿真
拉丁超立方体抽样
回归树
operational availability evaluation
Arena simulation
Latin hypercube sampling
regression tree
