摘要
云南省作为西部大开发的典型省份之一,有着独特的自然环境和资源禀赋,但同时全省地形复杂多变且处于气候带的脆弱区,气候变率相当大。本研究在分析云南省近30年的土地利用/土地覆被变化的前提下,采用中尺度天气研究与预报Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)模式系统,对云南省未来40年干旱发生风险进行了预测分析。研究首先对WRF模式系统适用性进行了验证,重点分析了气温和降水两个主要干旱影响因子的未来时空变异特征。然后根据WRF模式系统的输出结果,选取了系列气象干旱指标因子,并采用综合气象干旱指数计算方法在空间和时间上对干旱发生风险进行了预测。从研究结果来看,加强对现用森林资源的保护,执行长期有效的生态工程建设,可以很大程度上减缓未来干旱发生频率。同时云南省当前"城市上山"等政策实施中也应考虑到建设用地扩张的不可逆转性,避免城市盲目上山。研究指出,未来区域发展规划应该对人为土地利用进行长期且合理有效部署,减少政策的不确定性,合理的区域发展规划是应对干旱风险的有效举措。
Yunnan Province as a typical provinceof the western development in China,is located in a vulnerable climate area.There isgreatclimate variability and very complex terrain in this region.This study analyzed the drought risk of Yunnan Province in the next 40 years with the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model.Firstly,the applicability of the WRF model was verified on the basis of the analysis of the land use/cover change of Yunnan Province in recent 30 years,and then thespatiotemporal characteristics of the two key influencing factors of the drought riskwere analyzed.A series of indices of the meteorological drought were selected according to the output of the WRF model,and the drought risk was predicted with the integrated meteorological drought index.The results showed that.The results indicates that the drought risk can be greatly alleviated by reinforcing the protection of existing forest resources and implementing long-term effective ecological engineering construction.Besides,it is necessary to take into account the irreversibility of the construction land expansion during the current implementation process of the ‘ Cities Go to Mountains＇ policy.In summary,the results indicate thatthe regional development planning should includea long-termeffective land useplanning and reduce the uncertaintiesof the policy since areasonable regional development planning is an effective way to alleviate the drought risk.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第10期95-101,共7页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(编号:2010CB950904)
中国环境与发展国际合作委员会"中国西部环境与发展战略及政策研究"课题
