摘要
本文分别运用理论推导、灰色关联分析和面板数据模型衡量了2000—2011年中国城乡人口年龄结构差异对城乡居民消费差距的影响。研究发现：城乡人口年龄结构差异与城乡消费差距相关；无论是全国消费总量，还是各大区域或不同商品大类，人口年龄结构差异与城乡居民消费差距均存在高度关联性；提高中国城乡少儿抚养系数比和降低城乡老年抚养系数比，有助于缩小城乡消费差距。同时，提高城市化水平，减少城乡居民收入、价格水平和实际利率差距以及降低经济垄断和对外开放程度，不刻意缩小城乡教育水平差距，也利于缩减城乡消费差距。本文的结论对于如何调整计划生育和人口流动等政策，以实现通过转变人口年龄结构来缩小城乡消费差距之目的，具有重要现实意义。
Using theoretical derivation, gray correlation analysis and panel data model, this paper analyzes the impacts of urban-rural population age structure difference on urban-rural household consumption inequality during 2000~2011. It indicates that：urban-rural population age structure difference is related to urban-rural household consumption inequality;there exists high correlation between ur- ban-rural population age structure difference and urban-rural household consumption inequality, both on national consumption, or regional consumption or major products consumption;increasing the ratio of urban-rural child dependency coefficient and the ratio of urban-rural child dependency coefficient is conducive to reduce urban-rural household consumption inequality; meanwhile, it is also effective to reduce urban-rural household consumption inequality by increasing the urbanization level, by reducing the ratio of household income, price level and the real interest rate level and also the difference of urban-rural social security and by not trying to narrow the urban-rural gap of education. The conclusion of this paper is of great realistic significance on how to adjust the family planning and population mobility policies in order to reduce the urban-rural consumption inequality through the transformation of population age structure.
出处
《山西财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第10期10-19,共10页
Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics
基金
浙江省第六次人口普查资料开发课题"浙江人口年龄结构对农村居民消费的影响研究"(浙人普办[2011]37号)
2012年CARD研究生科研项目"中国人口年龄结构对农村居民消费的影响研究"
关键词
人口年龄结构
城乡少儿抚养系数比
城乡老年抚养系数比
城乡居民消费差距
population age structure
ratio of urban-rural child dependency coefficient
ratio of urban-rural aged dependency coeffi-cient
urban-rural household consumption inequality
