摘要
本文使用CGSS2006的数据,对中国城镇居民的日常互联网使用与群体性上访、示威、集会等非制度化政治参与之间的关系进行分析。考虑到互联网使用与非制度化政治参与之间可能存在双向因果关系,除了广泛控制被访者的人口学特征、经济社会地位、心理和政治参与经历等变量外,本文还以被访者对信息通讯技术产品(ICT)的内在偏好作为工具变量,以解决联立性偏误问题。研究表明,互联网的日常使用可以扩大城市中的非制度化政治参与,互联网的使用和非制度化政治参与之间的"抑制性双向因果"意味着拓展利益诉求渠道是消除社会冲突的重要途径之一。
The Internet has been playing a more and more important role in the governance. Based on the data from the 2006 Chinese General Social Survey （CGSS）, this study examined the relationships between Internet use and non-institutional political participation, such as collective petitions, unauthorized protests, and unlawful assemblies. Given that the cause-effect relationships between Internet use and non-institutional political participation may be bidirectional, this study used the individual propensity for ICT products as the Instrumental Variable （IV） to correct for the potential simultaneity problem and other sources of the endogeneity problem, in addition to controlling for a constellation of individual demographic attributes, socioeconomic and psychological characteristics, and experiences of political participation. Considering of the popularization of mobile phones in 2000 in China, this study operationalized the IV as not owning mobile phones before 2000 while controlling for the respondents＇ income around 2000. The traditional Probit estimates for the effect of daily use of Internet were negative and insignificant, whereas the IV-Probit estimates were positive and significant at . 05 ahpla level. According to the result of Wald test and test for weak IV, the consistent estimates of IV-Probit were adopted. The findings suggest that daily Internet use did encourage non-institutional political participation. The opposite signs of the traditional Probit estimates and IV-Probit estimates might as well suggest an ＂inhibitory mutual relationship＂ between the two variables. This may imply that expanding the channel for interest expression can be one of important methods to reduce social conflicts.
出处
《社会》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第5期118-143,共26页
Chinese Journal of Sociology
基金
国家社科基金青年项目"社会流动理论视角下的中产阶层公民参与研究"(13CSH020)的研究成果之一~~
关键词
工具变量
内生性
联立性
互联网
非制度化政治参与
因果分析
instrumental variable, endogeneity, simultaneity, internet use, non- institutional political participation, causal analysis
