摘要
为了预测未来气候变暖对农业产生的影响,通过利用ENWATBAL动态模型模拟未来十年甚至几十年气候变化、尤其是气温和降水的变化对冬小麦田蒸散量的影响,借助历史资料推测同期气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响,从而获得相应的冬小麦水分利用效率的变化情况。结果表明,气候变暖会导致冬小麦蒸散量增加,产量下降,水分利用效率降低。说明气候变暖会加剧农业缺水问题,十分有必要开展节水农业。
In order to forecast the effect of climate warming on agriculture, ENWATBAL model was used to simulate evapotranspiration of winter wheat due to the change of air temperature and precipitation in the future decades. Than the effect of climate warming on winter wheat yield in the future decades was speculated by the past yield and climate data in last decades, and the possible water use efficiency in the future decades was calculated. The results indicated that, climate warming would increase winter wheat evapotranspiration, and decrease yield and water use efficiency of winter wheat. It water shortage in agriculture, and it was necessary to develop showed that climate warming would intensify the water-saving agriculture.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
2013年第27期42-48,共7页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
中国科学院知识创新方向性项目"提高农田水分利用效率的界面调控机理与技术"(KZCX-SW-317-02)
