摘要
文章构建以人口及空间城镇化为解释变量，以消费、投资为控制变量的经济增长解释模型，并采用1996～2011年中国省域面板数据进行估计。结果显示：人口及空间城镇化主要通过投资传导促进经济增长，没有形成对消费的推动。从时间上看，2007年实施新型城镇化战略后，人口城镇化对经济增长的影响效应明显提升，尤其是开启对消费的传导，空间城镇化通过投资传导对经济的促进效应也明显提升。从空间上看，东部人口及空间城镇化主要通过投资传导对经济产生促进作用，而在中西部，除中部人口城镇化通过投资传导略拉动经济增长外，其余人口城镇化作用均不显著，另外，空间城镇化虽然也能通过投资传导促进经济增长，但仍不足以抵消通过消费传导产生的抑制作用。
There are substantial studies on China＇s rapid urbanization and its impact on economic development. An econometrical model is constructed in this paper to examine the impact of both popu- lation urbanization and space urbanization on economic development in China when controlling for in- vestment and consumption, and regression estimates are made using panel data at provincial level. Results show that both population urbanization and space urbanization had a great boost to investment which in turn promoted economic growth, but had liffle effect on consumption. Since the new urbaniza- tion strategy was implemented in 2007, effects of population urbanization on economic growth have been considerably improved, especially via consumption, while investment driven by space urbaniza- tion also has had much larger effeds. Both population urbanization and space urbanization have pro- moted economic growth through investment in the Eastern Region, while in the Central and West Re- gions, population urbanization has had largely insignificant effeds on economic growth. Although space urbanization did promote economic growth through investment, it was well offset by the inhibiting effects of consumption. Policy implications are discussed in the paper.
出处
《人口研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第5期53-67,共15页
Population Research
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目"城市化进程中的‘适度人口’动态测度及路径实现"(12CRK021)
云南省哲学社会科学规划青年项目"云南人口红利测度与路径实现研究"(QN201112)
云南省教育厅研究生项目"实现云南经济社会与资源环境协调发展的人口红利测度研究"(2011J028)的资助
关键词
城镇化
经济增长
总体影响
时空分化
Urbanization, Economic Growth, Overall Effects, Spatiotemporal Differentiation
