摘要
借鉴"驱动力-压力-状态-响应-控制力"概念模型,依据数据可获取性,构建海岸带区域综合承载力评估指标体系和评价标准。以江苏省南通市海岸带为例,利用状态空间法开展研究区2005年、2008年和2009年综合承载力评估,五县(市)陆域、滩涂、海洋和区域的综合承载力基本处于可载状态,部分县(市)出现满载。从2005年至2009年,滩涂、海洋和区域综合承载力基本呈上升趋势,海门市海洋和区域的综合承载力上升分别为124.61%和142.98%;而陆域综合承载力呈下降趋势,如东县下降达22.42%。基于指标承载力贡献率分析,污染物及能耗、区域经济发展水平和环境压力是影响综合承载力关键因子。海岸带区域综合承载力的评估与分析,可作为制定区域发展规划的重要依据。
As an indispensable homestead of human activity, the ecosystem witnesses a large number of human activities. Undoubtedly, the development of socio-economic consumes a variety of natural resources, which places tremendous pressure on the ecosystem.Nevertheless, socio-economic development is the foundation to the human society.Especially, only when the ecosystem is under-loading state, the human economic activities will development sustainably. The coastal zone is not only an important area of Chinese economic in the future, but also a complex compound ecosystem of natural, social and economic.The complexity requires us to realize the coastal ecosystem by using compound ecosystem theory.The Integrated Carrying Capacity （ICC） refers to a comprehensive capacity, in a given period and space resources, to support the regional long-term sustainable development. Therefore the assessment of coastal ICC is essentially important for the coordinated and sustainable development from both economic and ecological aspects. Through the conceptual model of the ＂ driving force-pressure-state-response-control＂ （D-PSR-C） and the data accessibility, this paper constructs an assessment indices system and an standard of ICC through a case study of Nantong coastal area, Jiangsu province, China.Based on the analysis of the data collected in this region in 2005, 2008 and 2009, the result shows that ： （ 1 ） the ICC of land, beach, marine, and regional of its five counties are not exceeded, but some arefully loaded. In 2008 the highest one is Qidong regional ICC, which is 2.679 and under-loading.The lowest one is Haian marine ICC, which is 0.171 and over-loading; （2） from 2005 to 2009, the ICC of beach, marine and regional are on an upward trend, in which the marine and regional ICC of Haimen is increased by 124.61% and 142.98%.One the other hand, the land is on downward; for example, Rudong is decreased by 22.42%; （3） based on the contribution rate analysis of secondary indicator carrying capacity, the key factors of affecting ICC are the rate of the pollutants and energy consumption, the level of regional economic development, and the environmental pressure. In this paper, the indices system consists of three layers： first-class indicator, second-class indicator, and third-class indicator.The third can also be adjusted by the data availability.In the meantime, the study area of coastal zone is divided into land, shoal, marine, and regional. The assessment model of coastal ICC can be proposed a new research method to assess the coastal carrying capacity.With the regional development stage coefficient theory, the standard of ICC ideal value is adjusted.That can improve the faultiness of traditional method. Moreover by using the contribution ratio analysis of second- class indicator, the key indicator of can be found to support the regional socio-economic development planning. The assessment of ICC will be a fundamental basis for long-term economic sustainable development.
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第18期5893-5904,共12页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
海洋公益性行业科研经费专项(200805080)
上海市科委资助项目(12231203200)
关键词
综合承载力
D—PSR—C
指标体系
状态空间法
发展阶段系数
integrated carrying capacity
D-PSR-C
Indices system
space-state method
development stage coefficient
