摘要
智能公交系统伴随着智能交通信息系统的发展而逐渐普及,其目的是向乘客提供各种实时交通信息,以提高出行的便利性和灵活性,最终实现公交出行分担率的提升。针对公交网络的特殊性,提出符合乘客路径选择行为且易于确定的广义路径定义,以成都公交电子站牌信息为背景,设计问卷对乘客路径选择行为及出行意向进行调查。采用定性和定量分析相结合的分析方法,基于随机效用理论,建立包括路径选择方案特性变量和乘客个人社会经济属性特性变量为解释变量的Logit和混合Logit路径选择模型,运用蒙特卡洛模拟和极大似然法完成参数估计。分析结果表明,混合Logit模型能更合理地解释由个体偏好而导致的路径选择行为差异,有助于对复杂公交行为的理解,以便更好地用以指导实践。
Along with the development of intelligent transportation information system, intelligent public transportation system is gradually popularized. Such information system is designed to provide all kinds of real-time information to transit passengers on the conditions of the network, and hence affect passengers＇ travel choice behavior and improve passenger travel convenience and flexibility, so as to improve the social benefit and service level of the public transit system. Concerning the particularity of the transit network, with electronic bus stop information of Chengdu as an example, a questionnaire was designed to investigate passengers＇ route choice behavior and travel intention. Qualitative and quantitative analysis and random utility theory were adopted, based on Logit model and mixed Logit model, route choice models were established, using characteristic variables of various options and passengers＇ personal socio-economic attributes as explanatory variables. The method of Monte Carlo simulation and maximum likelihood were used to estimate parameters. The results indicate that the differences of route choice behavior resulting from individual preferences can be reasonably interpreted by mixed Logit model, which helps us better understand the complexity of transit behavior, so as to guide the application.
出处
《计算机应用》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第10期2964-2968,共5页
journal of Computer Applications
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71090402
71271178)
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(12YJA630057)
