摘要
以重庆市1997-2012年的时间序列数据和2006-2011年34个区县的面板数据为研究对象,运用计量经济学方法分析重庆市城镇化发展与农民收入的动态关系,分别建立了变结构协整模型和面板自回归分布滞后模型。研究结果表明,重庆市城镇化发展与农民增收之间存在长期的正向影响关系,但是不同区县的农民收入具有不同的固定效应,不同的城镇化推进阶段农民增收幅度也不一样,且持续的城镇化推进政策才能保证农民增收的持续性。
With the time series data from 1997 to 2012 and the panel data of 34 Chongqing＇s districts and counties from 2006 to 201 t as research samples, using the econometric methods to explain the dynamic relationship between develop- ment of urbanization and income growth of rural residents in Chongqing, the structural change cointegration model and panel autoregressive distributed lag model are set up. The results show that there exists long-term positive relationship be tween them, but the fix effect of rural residents＇ income is different in different areas, while rural residents＇ income growth varies according to the stage of urbanization. The results also show stable urbanization policy will ensure sustainable income growth of rural residents.
出处
《理论与现代化》
CSSCI
2013年第5期57-63,共7页
Theory and Modernization
基金
重庆市社会科学规划项目"重庆农村居民收入结构差异研究--基于非线性计量分析"的阶段性成果
项目编号2011QNJJ16
国家社科基金项目"共同因子结构下非线性面板协整检验方法及应用研究"的阶段性成果
项目编号12XTJ001
国家社科基金项目"应对转型期贫困‘代际转移’的公共政策体系创新研究"的阶段性成果
项目编号:11CJY087
关键词
城镇化
农民收入增长
变结构
面板协整检验
自回归分布滞后模型
Urbanization
Income growth of rural residents
Structural change
Panel Cointegration Test
AutoregressionDistribution Lag Model
