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概率及天气概率预报 被引量:2

Probability and weather probability forecast
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摘要 本文通过分析数学意义上的概率,以及气象业务实践中的概率预报,阐明了概率预报在天气预报中的应用价值。特别是对于数值预报产品开发应用,实行天气预报逐级指导,具有一定的参考意义。 Analysis of probability in the sense or mathematics and probability rforecast applied in meteorological operation words is presented.This Paper expiunded application value of probability forecast for weather prediction.It especially has a certain reference sighificance for develipment of numerical weatyerprediction products and guidance of weatyer forecast hrade by grade.
作者 贾伏生
机构地区 山西省气象台
出处 《山西气象》 2000年第4期14-16,共3页 Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly
关键词 概率 概率预报 天气预报 数值预报 逐级指导 probability,probability forecast,subject,object.
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  • 1王建捷.北美的天气预报技术现状及其展望[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,1991(10):46-48. 被引量:1
  • 2李晓明,傅小兰,宇明.信息的外部表征方式对贝叶斯推理成绩的影响[J].人类工效学,2004,10(3):3-6. 被引量:8
  • 3张小礼.集合预报简介[J].气象科技,1996,24(2):9-14. 被引量:7
  • 4矫梅燕,龚建东,周兵,赵声蓉.天气预报的业务技术进展[J].应用气象学报,2006,17(5):594-601. 被引量:39
  • 5Bonnefon, J. F., Villejoubert, G. Communicating Likelihood and Managing Face: Can We Say It Is Probable When We Know It to Be Certain?[R]. Proceedings of the 27th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, 2005.
  • 6Brun, W., Teigen, K. H. Verbal Probabilities: Ambiguous, Context-Dependent, or Both?[J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1988,41:390-404.
  • 7Erev, I., Cohen, B. L. Verbal versus Numerical Probabilities: Efficiency, Biases, and the Preference Paradox [J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1990,45(1): 1-18.
  • 8Wallsten, T. S., Budescu, D. V., Zwick, R., Kemp, S. M. Preferences and Reasons for Communicating Probabilistic Information in Verbal or Numerical Terms[J]. Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, 1993,31 (2): 135-138.
  • 9Budescu, D. V., Wallsten, T. S. Processing Linguistic Probabilities: General Principles and Empirical Evidence[J]. The Psychology of Learning and Motivation, 1995,32:275-318.
  • 10Li, S., Chen, W. W., Yu, Y. The Reason for Asian Overconfidence[J]. Journal of Psychology, 2006,140(6):615-618.

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