摘要
根据制作中国汛期降水业务预报的需要 ,调整了区域气候自忆预测模式的边界条件及计算格式并进行了数值试验 ;讨论了模式中记忆系数的线性趋势及周期变化等特征 ;对 1 988～1 997年中国汛期降水分布预报试验和 1 998年实际预报结果进行了分析 ,结果表明 ,自忆模式对汛期降水年际预报具有一定的能力 .
WT5BZ] The boundary conditions and calculating scheme of the regional climatic Self Memorial model, were adjusted to operational forecast for seasonal precipitation in summer in China and the numerical experiments were carried out. The periodic variation of the memory coefficients in the model was analyzed and potential relationship between the coefficients and the other physical factors in the climatic system were also discussed. The hindcasts for 1988 to 1997 and operational forecast for 1998 show that the model is useful in forecasting seasonal precipitation.
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第4期467-473,共7页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
基金
中国气象局气候研究开放实验室科研基金
国家自然科学基金!(4 96752 62 )
