摘要
以福建省为例,利用协整理论和1995-2011年间的城镇居民可支配收入和人均消费支出数据,构建了误差修正模型,对两者之间的关系进行了动态计量分析。结果表明,城镇居民可支配收入和消费支出存在协整关系,居民的消费行为受到可支配收入的明显影响,同时,前一期的误差对当期的消费出也有着显著作用。此外,由于福建省的低水平社会福利导致了居民的预储蓄行为,这就需要加大调整力度将居民可支配收入与消费支出之间的非均衡状态拉回到长期均衡状态。
Based on the data about disposable income and per capita consumption expenditure from 1995 to 2011,the paper establishes error correction model and analyzes the dynamic econometric relationship between disposable income and consumption expenditure of Fujian urban residents with the application of the co- integration theory. The analysis shows that there exists a co-integration relationship between disposable income and consumption expenditure,and urban residents＇ consumption behaviors are significantly affected by their disposable income. Besides,the previous errors also exert great influence on residents＇ consumption expenditure behaviors. The low-level social welfare in Fujian Province has led to residents＇ precautionary savings behaviors. Thus,more efforts should be made in the adjustment of urban residents＇ disposable income and their consumption expenditure from the state of disequilibrium to long-term equilibrium.
出处
《宁波职业技术学院学报》
2013年第4期86-89,共4页
Journal of Ningbo Polytechnic
关键词
可支配收入
消费支出
协整
误差修正
disposable income
consumption expenditure
stability
Granger Causality Test
co -integration analysis
