摘要
利用1961～2010年北疆阿勒泰地区的气象数据,对研究区大冬季的气温和降水特征进行分析。结果表明:1)阿勒泰地区年平均气温以0.43℃/10a的速率呈增温趋势,与此同时降雪量也以126.4mm/10a的速度呈上升趋势。2)通过可公度法判断出2012a及2013a发生下一次中-重度雪灾的信号较强。并采用蝴蝶结构图法及可公度结构系法对雪灾发生年份进行了验证。3)太阳黑子及ENSO事件对雪灾的发生均具有一定的影响。
Based on meteorological data of Altay Region in North Xinjiang during 1961-2010,we analyzed the characteristics of big winter’s temperatures and precipitations.The results showed that： 1）The average temperature of Altay Region was rising with the rate of 0.43℃/10a.At the same time,the precipitation was also in an increasing tendency by 126.4mm/10a.2）the 2012a and 2013a have be determined strong signal of the next moderate-severe snow disaster through the commensurable method.the year that snow disaster happened was proved with the method of time symmetry structure and butterfly structure.3）Sunspots and ENSO events all had certain influence on the occurrence of snow disaster.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第9期72-78,共7页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"部分重大自然灾害的时空对称性:结构
机理与适应对策"(41171090)资助
关键词
雪灾
可公度法
蝴蝶结构图法
可公度结构图法
阿勒泰地区
snow disaster
commensurability
map of butterfly structure
time symmetry structure
Altay Region
