摘要
淡水湖泊与水库富营养化使其农业灌溉、防洪、发电以及生活用水水源的功能日趋受损。本文以南方某水源水库富营养化动态监测的10个指标(UV254、CODMn、TOC、可溶性硅、总氮、硝酸盐氮、氨氮、亚硝酸盐氮、总磷和磷酸盐)为自变量,叶绿素a为因变量。通过主成分分析(PCA)与多元线性回归(MLR)对变量进行分析,最后得到了以TOC、总氮(总磷)、亚硝酸盐氮为自变量,叶绿素a为因变量的拟合曲线。统计分析表明模型的F值为18.670,Sig.值为0,证明曲线相关性很高;通过回代检验得到模型的符合率为86.1%,表明该评价模型对富营养化具有一定预报能力;模型分析结果进一步表明叶绿素a、总氮(总磷)是该水库富营养的水质主控因子,其中总氮与总磷对该水源水库富营养化水平的影响程度相近。
Eutrophication is impairing the function of fresh water lakes and reservoirs witch are the main water source for agriculture irrigation, flood control , power generation and domestic water. The paper took the ten indexes （UV254 and CODMn, TOC, soluble silica, total nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, nitrite nitrogen, total phosphorus and phosphate） as independent variables,and chlorophyll a as attributive variable during dynamic monitoring of a water source reservoir in south China. Through the methods of principal component analysis （PCA） and multiple linear regression （MLR）, the paper got the fitting curve of taking TOC, total nitrogen, total phosphorus and nitrite nitrogen as independent variables and chlorophyll as attributive variable. Through the test of F and Sig value, F and Sig value are 18. 670 and 0 respectively, which indicates a very good linear correlation and confirms good accuracy. The vali- dation test of the model shows 86. i% fitness, which demonstrates the forecasting ability of the model. chlorophyll a and total nitrogen （and/or total phosphorus） are demonstrated to be the eutrophic control factors of the study reservoir. The total nitrogen and total phosphorus have the similar influence on europh- ication level of water reservoir.
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
2013年第4期49-53,共5页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(21206092)
