摘要
随着我国合作开发的海外油田项目日益增多,从目前和长远来说,快速预测油田产量,对于项目的正确评估是一项重要任务。基于Gompertz模型可以很好表征和描述"S"型曲线的特点,以及灰色模型建模适用数据点较少的优点,提出一种基于Gompertz的灰色模型用以预测油田累计产量的新方法。经实例验算,该模型回归拟合历史数据具有强的抗干扰能力,拟合精度高;利用基于Gompertz的灰色模型预测油气田产量具有一定的准确性和可靠性。
With the increasing of overseas oilfield cooperation projects,proper evaluation of a significant project needs quick forecasting the oil production from the current and the long term.Based on Gompertz model that can be used for fine characterization and description of S-type curves,and its grey model that requires fewer data points,this paper presents a new approach for prediction of a field cumulative oil production by Gompertz-based grey model.The case study shows that this model has strong anti-interference capacity and high accuracy in regression and history matching of production data,by which the production forecast of an oil-gas field will be of certain accuracy and reliability.
出处
《新疆石油地质》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第4期462-464,共3页
Xinjiang Petroleum Geology
基金
国家科技重大专项(2011ZX05030-005-05)
