摘要
电力市场中发电边际成本经常用于发电上网定价和电力交易合同定价的风险决策。基于边际成本的定义和随机生产模拟技术 ,提出一种短期发电边际成本的概率学预测方法 ,不仅能给出发电边际成本的均值 ,而且能得到其概率分布函数。
In the upcoming electricity market environment,marginal cost of power generation will play an important role in power pool's purchase pricing and risk analysis of farward contract pricing.Based on the definition of marginal cost and the technology of probabilistic costing,this paper provides a method for forecasting the expected value and probability distribution function of the short\|run marginal cost of power generation for a given time interval.Theoretical analysis and numerical testing show that the proposed method is quite reasonable and efficient.
出处
《中国电机工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第10期19-22,26,共5页
Proceedings of the CSEE
基金
国家自然科学基金 !(5 96 770 11)
上海市教委科技发展基金资助项目
关键词
电力市场
短期发电边际成本
概率学
预测
electricity market
short\|run marginal cost of power generation
marginal operation cost
marginal outage cost
probability distribution function
