摘要
世界范围的甲肝流行率可分为6种流行模式:Ⅰa,Ⅰb,Ⅰc.Ⅱa,Ⅱb,Ⅲ.Schenzle于1979年提出了感染力为logistic函数的改进简单催化模型,在此基础上.本文作者又给出感染力为线性函数、二次函数的简单催化模型.当感染力分别取常数、线性函数、二次函数及logistic函数时,可分别对这6种模式进行拟合.结合希腊、法国与瑞典3国的实际资料,用此数学模型进行了拟合.经拟合度的x^2检验,拟合效果良好.
There arc six epidemic models of hepatitis A in the world : Ⅰ a , Ⅰ b , Ⅰ c ,Ⅱ a , Ⅱb ,Ⅲ,Schenzlc advanced an ameliorative simple catalytic model in 1979, the infectivity of which was logistic function . On this basis , this paper proposes a modified simple catalytic model in which the force of infection is liner and conical function . We can use the modified model to fit the six epidemic models . With this model , we have fitted the real data of Oireece , France and Sweden and the results are satisfactory with the x2-tcst of godncss of fit .
出处
《第四军医大学学报》
1991年第6期459-462,共4页
Journal of the Fourth Military Medical University
关键词
甲型肝炎
模型
流行病
流行模式
models
hepatitis A
epidemic
epidemic model
catalytic model
