摘要
不确定性是复杂工程系统的内在属性,复杂工程系统的成本高昂且投资不可逆,大型复杂的工程系统往往是技术、资金高度密集的建设项目,巨大的不确定性、高额的成本投入、以及投资的不可逆性都更加凸显了灵活性对于复杂工程系统的重要性。对工程系统灵活性的两个方面——管理灵活性和内在灵活性进行了深入分析,提出了工程系统灵活性的<系统,管理,时间>3维结构,建立了基于灵活性的工程系统投资决策框架,该框架共包括9个步骤,涵盖了工程系统的不确定性分析、灵活性识别与分析、投资方案权衡、最优投资策略分析等内容,具有系统性和完整性。
Uncertainty is a inherent attribute of complex engineering systems which are character- ized as technology-and-capital intensified projects and usually require high and irreversible invest- ment. Huge uncertainty, high and irreversible investment make flexibility a vital concept for com- plex engineering systems. The thesis studies the flexibility of engineering systems which includes managerial flexibility and inner flexibility, and builds up a 3-dimention structure, expressed as 〈 system, management, time 〉, and finally brings forth an engineering systems investment deci- sion-making framework based on flexibility. As a result of systematical and integrated analysis, the framework concludes 9 steps from uncertainty analysis, flexibility identification and analysis, design scheme trading-off to optimal investment strategy analysis.
出处
《科学决策》
2013年第5期59-72,共14页
Scientific Decision Making
关键词
工程系统
投资决策
灵活性
不确定性
engineering systems
investment decision-making
flexibility
uncertainty
