摘要
针对现行设计洪水计算方法存在的不足,初步建立包含历史洪水信息的多维Copula联合分布模型,构造洪峰与时段洪量之间的多变量联合分布,推导三变量情形下的联合重现期,提出推求设计洪水过程线的新方法。以三峡水库的设计洪水为例,分析论证该法的可行性及合理性。结果表明:本文所建的多变量联合分布模型合理,设计洪水过程线以联合重现期作为防洪标准,考虑了洪水特征量之间的相关性,更加符合水文现象的内在规律和工程实际的要求,为推求设计洪水过程线提供一条新的途径。
To improve conventional design flood hydrograph analysis method, a trivariate joint distribution model accounting for historical flood information was preliminarily established. A new design flood hydrograph （DFH） method was proposed based on the trivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volumes. The design flood hydrograph of the Three Gorges reservoir was selected as a case study. The proposed DFH method selects the trivariate return period as flood prevention standard and considers the correlation between flood peak and volumes. The results show that the trivariate joint distribution model is feasible and fits the inherent rules of hydrological events better than conventional method. This study provides an alternative approach to derivation of DFH in hydraulic engineering practice.
出处
《水力发电学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第3期10-14,38,共6页
Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering
基金
国家科技支撑计划(2009BAC56B01)
国家自然科学基金项目(51079100)
水利部公益性行业科研专项(200901001)
